The Centre for Social and Economic Research (CASE) has announced that the Polish-British report titled “Study on shale gas production effects on Poland's economy until 2030” is ready. The Report was prepared for the Ministry of the Environment which as early as April 2014 announced an independent study on shale production effects on both countries and on the entire European Union.
According to CASE, the objective of the study was to develop four scenarios based on assumptions behind the potential for shale gas exploration, production and use, as well as to assess potential effects on the economies. The objective was achieved by analyzing the cost of shale gas exploration and production, with special emphasis on potential scenarios of capital requirements and the expected demand for energy commodities.
The report includes an assessment of gas production effects on the entire economy in the contexts of capital investment, employment and tax revenues.
The assumptions behind the study included:
- pending legislative changes,
- hurdles and incentives for the investors,
- realistic capital outlays, as required for an increase in energy production,
- the EU and national energy policies, including the construction of gas and electricity interconnectors,
- potential shale gas imports from the USA,
- construction (or not) of a nuclear power plant in Poland.
As a result, the following four economic scenarios were prepared:
- base (moderately positive) scenario,
- conservative scenario (with difficulties but realistic),
- optimistic scenario (development with significant contributions from foreign capital and international financial institutions),
- pessimistic (stagnation) scenario.
According to Ministry of the Environment, the reports is about to be completed and will be available to the public soon.
sources: case.pl, Ministry of Environment